Asymmetric Warfare Group Russian New Generation Warfare Handbook

Here's a deep dive into the world of asymmetric warfare, with a specific focus on the strategies employed by Russia, often described as elements of "New Generation Warfare," and how the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) studies and seeks to counter such tactics.

Understanding Asymmetric Warfare

Asymmetric warfare occurs when opposing sides in a conflict possess vastly different resources and employ contrasting strategies. It's a battle fought on an uneven playing field, where the weaker party seeks to exploit the vulnerabilities of the stronger opponent to neutralize their advantages.

Key Characteristics of Asymmetric Warfare:

• Imbalance of Power: One side typically possesses significantly greater military strength, technology, or economic resources.

• Unconventional Tactics: The weaker side often relies on methods outside the traditional norms of warfare, such as:

  • Guerrilla warfare
  • Terrorism
  • Cyberattacks
  • Propaganda and disinformation
  • Use of proxies

• Exploitation of Vulnerabilities: Asymmetric strategies target the opponent's weaknesses, whether they be military, economic, political, or social.

• Protracted Conflict: Asymmetric conflicts often last longer than conventional wars, as the weaker side aims to wear down the stronger opponent's resolve and resources.

• Blurred Lines: The distinction between combatants and non-combatants can become blurred, making it difficult to apply traditional rules of engagement.

• Information Warfare: Controlling the narrative and shaping public opinion is a crucial element, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence perceptions.

Russia's "New Generation Warfare" (NGW)

The term "New Generation Warfare" (NGW), sometimes referred to as "hybrid warfare," describes a modern approach to conflict allegedly employed by Russia. It combines military and non-military tactics to achieve strategic goals while staying below the threshold of traditional warfare that might trigger a strong response. While the term itself is debated and not officially adopted as doctrine by the Russian military, it serves as a useful framework for understanding the observed tactics.

Key Elements of NGW:

• Information Warfare: This is a cornerstone of NGW, involving the use of propaganda, disinformation, and cyberattacks to manipulate public opinion, sow discord, and undermine trust in institutions.
• Political and Economic Pressure: Russia may use its economic leverage, such as energy exports, and political influence to exert pressure on target countries.
• Cyber Warfare: Cyberattacks are used to disrupt critical infrastructure, steal sensitive information, and spread disinformation.
• Use of Proxies: Supporting separatist movements, paramilitary groups, or even criminal organizations allows Russia to exert influence and destabilize regions without direct military intervention.
• Special Operations Forces (SOF): Highly trained SOF units conduct covert operations, intelligence gathering, and training of proxy forces.
• Conventional Military Force (Limited): While NGW emphasizes non-military tactics, the threat of conventional military force remains a key element of deterrence and escalation control.
• Focus on the Information Space: NGW recognizes the importance of shaping the narrative and controlling the flow of information to achieve strategic objectives.
• Exploitation of Internal Divisions: NGW seeks to exploit existing ethnic, social, or political divisions within a target country to weaken its unity and resistance.
• Rapid Deployment and Escalation: The ability to quickly deploy forces and escalate the conflict if necessary is a crucial aspect of NGW.
• Denial and Deception: Maintaining plausible deniability and employing deceptive tactics are used to obscure Russia's involvement and complicate attribution.

Examples of Alleged NGW in Action:

• The Annexation of Crimea (2014): This operation involved a combination of disinformation, the deployment of "little green men" (Russian soldiers without identifying insignia), and support for pro-Russian separatists.
• The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-present): Russia has allegedly provided support to separatist forces in eastern Ukraine through military equipment, training, and personnel, while denying direct involvement.
• Interference in Foreign Elections: Accusations of Russian interference in elections in the United States, France, and other countries highlight the use of cyberattacks and disinformation to influence political outcomes.

Criticisms of the NGW Concept:

• Some analysts argue that NGW is not a new phenomenon, but rather a continuation of traditional Russian military doctrine adapted to the modern information environment.
• Others argue that the term is too broad and encompasses a wide range of tactics, making it difficult to define and analyze.
• There is debate about the extent to which the Russian military has formally adopted NGW as official doctrine.

Despite these criticisms, the concept of NGW has been influential in shaping Western perceptions of Russian military strategy and has prompted increased investment in countering hybrid threats.

The Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG)

The Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) was a unit of the United States Army tasked with identifying and mitigating asymmetric threats to U.S. forces. Although it was deactivated in 2021, its mission and legacy remain relevant. The AWG served as an important element in understanding and countering asymmetric warfare tactics, including those associated with "New Generation Warfare."

Mission and Objectives of the AWG:

• Identify Asymmetric Threats: The AWG analyzed emerging threats and identified vulnerabilities in U.S. forces that could be exploited by adversaries.
• Develop Countermeasures: The AWG developed tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to mitigate asymmetric threats and enhance the survivability of U.S. forces.
• Train and Advise: The AWG trained U.S. soldiers and provided advice to commanders on how to counter asymmetric threats.
• Rapidly Field Solutions: The AWG worked with industry partners to develop and rapidly field new technologies and equipment to address emerging threats.
• Conduct Research and Development: The AWG conducted research and development to improve understanding of asymmetric warfare and develop new countermeasures.
• Enhance Situational Awareness: The AWG worked to improve the situational awareness of U.S. forces by providing them with information on emerging threats and adversary tactics.

AWG's Approach to Countering Asymmetric Warfare:

• Understanding the Adversary: The AWG placed a strong emphasis on understanding the adversary's motivations, capabilities, and tactics.
• Identifying Vulnerabilities: The AWG sought to identify vulnerabilities in U.S. forces that could be exploited by adversaries.
• Developing Adaptive Solutions: The AWG developed flexible and adaptive solutions that could be tailored to specific threats and environments.
• Promoting Innovation: The AWG fostered a culture of innovation and encouraged experimentation to develop new countermeasures.
• Collaboration and Partnerships: The AWG collaborated with other government agencies, industry partners, and academic institutions to leverage their expertise and resources.

Key Areas of Focus for the AWG in Relation to NGW:

• Countering Disinformation: Developing strategies to identify and counter disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining public trust and sowing discord.
• Cybersecurity: Enhancing cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and prevent cyberattacks.
• Counter-IED (Improvised Explosive Device) Warfare: Developing tactics and technologies to counter the use of IEDs, a common asymmetric weapon.
• Urban Warfare: Preparing soldiers for the challenges of fighting in complex urban environments.
• Unmanned Systems: Developing strategies to counter the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other unmanned systems by adversaries.
• Information Operations: Developing strategies to influence public opinion and counter adversary propaganda.
• Working with Partner Nations: Building the capacity of partner nations to counter asymmetric threats in their own regions.

The AWG's Legacy:

Although the AWG was deactivated, its work has had a lasting impact on the U.S. Army. The AWG's insights and recommendations have been incorporated into training programs, doctrine, and equipment development. The AWG also helped to foster a culture of innovation and adaptation within the Army, which is essential for countering the evolving threats of asymmetric warfare. Its work continues to inform the development of strategies and tactics for dealing with modern conflict.

Key Differences in Tactics

To further understand the dynamics, here's a comparison of key tactics used in NGW and traditional warfare, and how the AWG sought to address them:

The Importance of Understanding the Human Domain

One of the most critical aspects of NGW, and therefore a key focus for groups like the AWG, is the human domain. This refers to the social, cultural, and psychological factors that influence the behavior of individuals and groups. NGW seeks to exploit vulnerabilities in the human domain to achieve strategic objectives.

Key Aspects of the Human Domain in NGW:

• Identity and Belonging: NGW seeks to exploit ethnic, religious, or national identities to create divisions and foster conflict.
• Grievances and Perceptions of Injustice: NGW amplifies existing grievances and manipulates perceptions of injustice to incite unrest and violence.
• Trust and Legitimacy: NGW undermines trust in institutions, leaders, and information sources to erode social cohesion and weaken the state.
• Values and Beliefs: NGW seeks to influence values and beliefs to promote specific narratives and agendas.
• Social Networks and Communication: NGW exploits social networks and communication channels to spread disinformation and propaganda.

Countering Exploitation of the Human Domain:

• Promoting Social Cohesion: Strengthening social bonds and fostering a sense of shared identity to counter divisive narratives.
• Addressing Grievances: Addressing legitimate grievances and promoting reconciliation to reduce tensions.
• Building Trust in Institutions: Enhancing transparency and accountability to build trust in government and other institutions.
• Promoting Media Literacy: Educating the public about how to identify and counter disinformation.
• Supporting Civil Society: Empowering civil society organizations to promote democratic values and counter extremist ideologies.

Challenges in Countering NGW

Countering NGW presents numerous challenges:

• Attribution: It can be difficult to attribute specific actions to a particular actor, especially when they are conducted covertly or through proxies.
• Escalation Control: Responding to NGW tactics can be difficult without escalating the conflict to a conventional war.
• Interagency Coordination: Countering NGW requires close coordination between different government agencies, including intelligence, law enforcement, and diplomatic services.
• Public Support: Maintaining public support for countering NGW can be challenging, especially when the threats are not easily understood or visible.
• Legal and Ethical Considerations: Countering NGW requires careful consideration of legal and ethical issues, such as the use of cyber weapons and the protection of civil liberties.

The Future of Asymmetric Warfare

As technology continues to evolve, asymmetric warfare will likely become even more complex and challenging. New technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons systems, and advanced cyber capabilities, could be used to develop even more sophisticated asymmetric tactics.

Key Trends to Watch:

• Increased Use of AI: AI could be used to automate disinformation campaigns, develop autonomous weapons systems, and analyze vast amounts of data to identify vulnerabilities.
• Proliferation of Cyber Weapons: Cyber weapons are becoming more widely available and easier to use, making them an attractive option for state and non-state actors.
• Weaponization of Social Media: Social media platforms are increasingly being used to spread disinformation, incite violence, and recruit new members to extremist groups.
• Blurring Lines Between War and Peace: Asymmetric warfare is blurring the lines between war and peace, making it more difficult to define and respond to threats.

Preparing for the Future:

To effectively counter asymmetric warfare in the future, it is essential to:

• Invest in Research and Development: Investing in research and development to develop new technologies and strategies for countering asymmetric threats.
• Enhance Interagency Coordination: Improving coordination between different government agencies to ensure a comprehensive and coordinated response.
• Strengthen International Partnerships: Working with international partners to share information, develop common strategies, and build capacity.
• Promote Public Awareness: Educating the public about the threats of asymmetric warfare and the importance of resilience.
• Adapt Legal and Ethical Frameworks: Adapting legal and ethical frameworks to address the challenges of asymmetric warfare in the 21st century.

Conclusion

Asymmetric warfare, especially in the context of "New Generation Warfare," poses a significant challenge to national security. By understanding the tactics and strategies employed by adversaries, and by developing effective countermeasures, it is possible to mitigate the risks and protect national interests. The work of organizations like the Asymmetric Warfare Group, while now concluded, provides valuable insights and lessons learned that can inform future efforts to counter asymmetric threats. The key lies in adaptability, innovation, and a deep understanding of the human domain. It's a constant process of learning and adaptation in an ever-evolving landscape of conflict.

FAQ on Asymmetric Warfare and NGW

Q: What is the main goal of asymmetric warfare?

A: The primary goal is to neutralize the advantages of a stronger opponent by exploiting their vulnerabilities through unconventional tactics.

Q: Is "New Generation Warfare" an official Russian military doctrine?

A: While widely discussed and observed in practice, it's not officially recognized as a formal doctrine but serves as a useful framework for understanding Russia's modern approach to conflict.

Q: What role does disinformation play in NGW?

A: Disinformation is a cornerstone, used to manipulate public opinion, sow discord, and undermine trust in institutions, weakening the target society from within.

Q: How did the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) contribute to countering asymmetric threats?

A: The AWG identified threats, developed countermeasures, trained soldiers, and fostered innovation in the U.S. Army, leaving a lasting impact on doctrine and tactics.

Q: What are the biggest challenges in countering NGW?

A: Key challenges include attribution of actions, escalation control, interagency coordination, maintaining public support, and addressing legal and ethical considerations.

Q: How is the human domain related to asymmetric warfare?

A: NGW seeks to exploit vulnerabilities in the human domain (identity, grievances, trust) to create divisions and weaken the target state.

Q: What are some emerging technologies that could impact asymmetric warfare?

A: Artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons systems, and advanced cyber capabilities are key technologies that could be used to develop more sophisticated asymmetric tactics.

Q: What can be done to prepare for the future of asymmetric warfare?

A: Investing in research and development, enhancing interagency coordination, strengthening international partnerships, promoting public awareness, and adapting legal and ethical frameworks are crucial steps.